Prophet Predictions#


Prophet Predictions#

This notebooks performs some basic time series forecasting using Prophet from Facebook.

Prediction Per Year#

2017 - 14556.0 CVEs
2018 - 15918.0 CVEs
2019 - 17125.0 CVEs
2020 - 18353.0 CVEs
2021 - 20890.0 CVEs
2022 - 23843.0 CVEs
2023 - 27412.0 CVEs
2024 - 30655.0 CVEs
2025 - 33677.0 CVEs
2026 - 36763.0 CVEs
2027 - 39849.0 CVEs
2028 - 42966.0 CVEs
2029 - 46042.0 CVEs
2030 - 49148.0 CVEs
2031 - 52251.0 CVEs
2032 - 51099.0 CVEs

Plot the Forecast#

This shows the plot for all previous data and the next 10 years.

_images/CVEProphet_9_0.png

Plot the Forecast With Change Points#

This shows the plot for all previous data and the next 10 years with changepoints marked where the data had abrupt changes in its trajectories.

_images/CVEProphet_12_0.png

Most CVE Per Day Predictions For The Next Year#

ds yhat yhat_lower yhat_upper
2023-06-07 00:00:00 110.000000 58.000000 170.000000
2023-07-19 00:00:00 109.000000 55.000000 166.000000
2023-07-26 00:00:00 109.000000 51.000000 168.000000
2023-04-12 00:00:00 109.000000 52.000000 165.000000
2023-10-25 00:00:00 109.000000 53.000000 166.000000
2023-04-05 00:00:00 109.000000 54.000000 165.000000
2023-04-19 00:00:00 108.000000 52.000000 160.000000
2023-06-14 00:00:00 108.000000 55.000000 162.000000
2023-11-01 00:00:00 108.000000 48.000000 165.000000
2023-09-27 00:00:00 107.000000 49.000000 164.000000

Most CVE Per Day Predictions For The Next 5 Years#

ds yhat yhat_lower yhat_upper
2027-06-09 00:00:00 144.000000 88.000000 202.000000
2027-07-21 00:00:00 143.000000 90.000000 199.000000
2027-04-14 00:00:00 143.000000 85.000000 198.000000
2027-10-27 00:00:00 143.000000 89.000000 198.000000
2027-04-07 00:00:00 143.000000 85.000000 198.000000
2027-07-28 00:00:00 143.000000 86.000000 200.000000
2027-06-02 00:00:00 142.000000 85.000000 196.000000
2027-10-20 00:00:00 142.000000 86.000000 201.000000
2027-03-31 00:00:00 142.000000 87.000000 202.000000
2027-04-21 00:00:00 142.000000 81.000000 199.000000

Most CVE Per Day Predictions For The Next 10 Years#

ds yhat yhat_lower yhat_upper
2032-07-21 00:00:00 186.000000 128.000000 238.000000
2032-06-09 00:00:00 186.000000 124.000000 239.000000
2032-06-02 00:00:00 185.000000 128.000000 244.000000
2032-04-14 00:00:00 185.000000 130.000000 242.000000
2032-10-27 00:00:00 185.000000 134.000000 237.000000
2032-07-28 00:00:00 185.000000 128.000000 242.000000
2032-04-07 00:00:00 185.000000 127.000000 247.000000
2032-09-22 00:00:00 184.000000 125.000000 243.000000
2032-04-21 00:00:00 184.000000 129.000000 238.000000
2032-03-31 00:00:00 184.000000 126.000000 243.000000